Forex Market Outlook: 09 September 2022

Updated September 8, 2022

The Dollar index extended its rally for this week before easing from its 20-year high on Wednesday to trade at around the 109.80 level. Hawkish expectations from the Fed after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated commitment to bring inflation back to the 2-3% target range and safe-haven demand inflow supported the Dollar’s rally. On the data front, US Services PMI data came in better than expected and allayed recession concerns. August Services PMI data stood at 56.9%, up from 56.7% in July and recorded its 27th consecutive growth in the month of August, indicating resilience in the services sector amid the macro headwinds.

Elsewhere, Euro pared recent losses on the back of a weaker Dollar on Wednesday but remained below the parity level against the Dollar. With the Eurozone’s heavy reliance on energy imports, rising energy prices exacerbated by Russian oil bans and the indefinite halt of natural gas supplies from the Nord Stream pipeline could drive the region into a recession. In the coming week, investors will be keeping a close watch on the ECB monetary policy meeting, with markets anticipating a 75bps rate hike as the central bank seeks to rein in inflation.

Trade ideas that played out on Tuesday: 6 September 2022

NZDUSD M30: Bearish outlook seen, further downside below 0.6150

On the M30 time frame, prices are approaching resistance at 0.6150, in line with the Fibonacci confluence levels where a pullback to this zone could present an opportunity to play the drop to our next support target at 0.6080. Stochastic is approaching resistance as well supporting the bearish bias.

Before:

Coloured candles represent our projection
Source: TradingView. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDUSD/Q15Ky67g-NZDUSD-M30-Bearish-outlook-seen-further-downside-below-0-6150/

After:


Today’s trade ideas: 8 September 2022

USDCHF M30: Bearish outlook seen, further downside below 0.9830

On the M30 time frame, a pullback to the resistance zone at 0.9830, in line with the Fibonacci confluence levels presents an opportunity to play the drop to the next support target at 0.9700 which is also the resistance-turned-support graphical zone and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A break below the downside confirmation level at 0.9765 could provide the bearish acceleration to the support zone at 0.9700. Prices are holding below the Ichimoku cloud as well supporting the bearish bias.

Coloured candles represent our projection
Source: TradingView. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDCHF/CnIx83NS-USDCHF-M30-Bearish-outlook-seen-further-downside-below-0-9830/

EURUSD H1: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 0.9920

On the H1 time frame, a throwback to the support zone at 0.9920, in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension could present an opportunity to play the bounce to the resistance zone at 1.00650. Prices are holding above the Ichimoku cloud as well supporting the bullish bias.

Coloured candles represent our projection
Source: TradingView. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/GmIXAbqU-EURUSD-H1-Bullish-outlook-seen-further-upside-above-0-9920/

XAUUSD H1: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 1700.50

On the H1 time frame, a throwback to the support zone at 1700.50, in line with the Fibonacci confluence levels and M30 demand chain could present an opportunity to play the bounce to the resistance zone at 1743.00. A break above our upside confirmation level at 1723.80 which is also the swing high resistance could provide the bullish acceleration to the resistance zone at 1743.00. 20 SMA is showing signs of bullish pressure as well with prices holding above the SMA.

Coloured candles represent our projection
Source: TradingView. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/6hVvrprQ-XAUUSD-H1-Bullish-outlook-seen-further-upside-above-1700-50/

Past performance is no indication of future performance. This report is provided by Zeta Labs, a specialized Forex Fintech Consultant and Technical Advisor who provides white-label solutions for FX Market Analysis, trading insights and education webinars. The team has a wealth of industry experience, with our analyst being part of the team recognised by The Technical Analyst Awards as Finalist for the Best FX Research for 4 consecutive years (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022). 

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