Forex Market Outlook: 13 September 2022

Updated September 13, 2022

The Dollar index eased from its 20 years high, extending its decline this week as interest rates differentials narrow between the Fed and major central banks. To rein in soaring inflation exacerbated by the energy crisis, Russian oil bans and supply disruptions, central banks are adopting more hawkish stance with aggressive interest rates hikes. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel mentioned that ECB will continue to keep up with its interest rates hikes to combat rising price pressures, with markets anticipating another 75bps rate hike in October’s meeting. Elsewhere, Sterling pared gains on the back of a weaker Dollar while upbeat GDP m/m data pointing to a 0.2% growth in July following a 0.6% decline in June also provided minimal boost to the currency. Investors will be keeping a close watch on August CPI data released on Wednesday with expectations for it to steady at around 10%. Notable publications today include the US CPI data where signs that price pressures have yet to peak could provide a fresh boost to the Dollar’s rally on the back of higher interest rates prospects.

Trade ideas that played out on Thursday: 8 September 2022

USDCHF M30: Bearish outlook seen, further downside below 0.9830

On the M30 time frame, a pullback to the resistance zone at 0.9830, in line with the Fibonacci confluence levels presents an opportunity to play the drop to the next support target at 0.9700 which is also the resistance-turned-support graphical zone and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A break below the downside confirmation level at 0.9765 could provide the bearish acceleration to the support zone at 0.9700. Prices are holding below the Ichimoku cloud as well supporting the bearish bias.

Before:

Coloured candles represent our projection

Source: TradingView. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDCHF/CnIx83NS-USDCHF-M30-Bearish-outlook-seen-further-downside-below-0-9830/

After:

EURUSD H1: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 0.9920

On the H1 time frame, a throwback to the support zone at 0.9920, in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension could present an opportunity to play the bounce to the resistance zone at 1.00650. Prices are holding above the Ichimoku cloud as well supporting the bullish bias.

Before:

Coloured candles represent our projection

Source: TradingView. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/GmIXAbqU-EURUSD-H1-Bullish-outlook-seen-further-upside-above-0-9920/

After:

XAUUSD H1: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 1700.50

On the H1 time frame, a throwback to the support zone at 1700.50, in line with the Fibonacci confluence levels and M30 demand chain could present an opportunity to play the bounce to the resistance zone at 1743.00. A break above our upside confirmation level at 1723.80 which is also the swing high resistance could provide the bullish acceleration to the resistance zone at 1743.00. 20 SMA is showing signs of bullish pressure as well with prices holding above the SMA.

Before:

Coloured candles represent our projection

Source: TradingView. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/6hVvrprQ-XAUUSD-H1-Bullish-outlook-seen-further-upside-above-1700-50/

After:

Today’s trade ideas: 13 September 2022

EURUSD H4: Bearish outlook seen, further downside below 1.0200

On the H4 time frame, prices are facing bearish pressure from the resistance zone at 1.020, in line with the Fibonacci confluence levels which presents an opportunity to play the drop to the next support target at 1.000. The 1.000 support zone also coincides with the 100% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement as well as the graphical support-turned-resistance zone. Stochastic is approaching resistance at 95.28 as well, where we could see a reversal, in line with prices.

Coloured candles represent our projection

Source: TradingView. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/BAl5Qtwt-EURUSD-H4-Bearish-outlook-seen-further-downside-below-1-0200/  

GBPUSD H4: Bearish outlook seen, further downside below 1.1750

On the H4 time frame, a pullback to the support-turned-resistance zone at 1.1750 which coincides with the Fiboancci confluence levels presents an opportunity to play the drop to the support zone at 1.1550. Failure to hold below the 1.1750 resistance zone could see prices push higher to the next resistance zone at 1.1880. Stochastic is approaching resistance at 91.40 as well supporting the bearish bias.

Coloured candles represent our projection

Source: TradingView. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GBPUSD/o0H6YR2X-GBPUSD-H4-Bearish-outlook-seen-further-downside-below-1-1750/

USDJPY H1: Bearish outlook seen, further downside below 143.50

On the H1 time frame, prices are facing bearish pressure from its resistance zone at 143.50, in line with the Fibonacci confluence levels where we could see further downside to the support-turned-resistance zone at 140.80. Prices are holding below Ichimoku cloud as well supporting the bearish bias. A break below the downside confirmation level at 141.78 could provide the bearish acceleration for further downside in prices.

Coloured candles represent our projection

Source: TradingView. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDJPY/lDFzE9oW-USDJPY-H1-Bearish-outlook-seen-further-downside-below-143-50/

Past performance is no indication of future performance. This report is provided by Zeta Labs, a specialized Forex Fintech Consultant and Technical Advisor who provides white-label solutions for FX Market Analysis, trading insights and education webinars. The team has a wealth of industry experience, with our analyst being part of the team recognised by The Technical Analyst Awards as Finalist for the Best FX Research for 4 consecutive years (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022). 

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