Forex Market Outlook: 15 September 2022

Updated September 15, 2022

Dollar rallied higher before paring gains on Thursday, supported by higher-than-expected August Core CPI data which stood at 0.6% m/m, ahead of market estimates of a 0.3% increase signalling that rising price pressures have yet to peak. This could spur the Fed to take on more aggressive rate hikes to rein in inflation, especially with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent reassurance of the Fed’s commitment to continue tightening cycles to bring inflation to its 2-3% target range. Elsewhere, August PPI data in the US eased with a 0.1% decline m/m in August, in line with market forecasts. Markets are anticipating a 75bps rate hike in September’s FOMC meeting with money markets pricing in a 30% chance of a 100bps rate hike. Meanwhile, oil prices pared recent losses to hover at around $89 per barrel as investors continue to weigh between the weaker demand outlook with China’s lockdown and supply constraints.

Elsewhere, Pound and Euro rallied higher on the back of a weaker greenback on Thursday. On the data front, annual inflation rate in the UK stood at 9.9% in August, easing from decades high of 10.1% in July which provided some relief for the markets. Both the UK and Eurozone continue to battle supply-driven inflation, leaving ECB and BoE with less room to manoeuvre as they struggle to balance growth and inflation. The deepening energy crisis following Russia’s gas supplies halt from the Nord Stream pipeline and limited storage facilities heading into winter could trigger energy rationing in the Eurozone and increase the risks of stagflation, posing further downside risks for the currency in the long run.

Trade ideas that played out on Tuesday: 13 September 2022

EURUSD H4: Bearish outlook seen, further downside below 1.0200

On the H4 time frame, prices are facing bearish pressure from the resistance zone at 1.020, in line with the Fibonacci confluence levels which presents an opportunity to play the drop to the next support target at 1.000. The 1.000 support zone also coincides with the 100% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement as well as the graphical support-turned-resistance zone. Stochastic is approaching resistance at 95.28 as well, where we could see a reversal, in line with prices.

Before:

Coloured candles represent our projection

Source: TradingView. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/BAl5Qtwt-EURUSD-H4-Bearish-outlook-seen-further-downside-below-1-0200/ 

After:

GBPUSD H4: Bearish outlook seen, further downside below 1.1750

On the H4 time frame, a pullback to the support-turned-resistance zone at 1.1750 which coincides with the Fibonacci confluence levels presents an opportunity to play the drop to the support zone at 1.1550. Failure to hold below the 1.1750 resistance zone could see prices push higher to the next resistance zone at 1.1880. Stochastic is approaching resistance at 91.40 as well supporting the bearish bias.

Before:

Coloured candles represent our projection

Source: TradingView. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GBPUSD/o0H6YR2X-GBPUSD-H4-Bearish-outlook-seen-further-downside-below-1-1750/

After:

Today’s trade ideas: 15 September 2022

AUDUSD M30: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 0.6740

On the M30 time frame, prices are testing support at 0.6740, in line with the graphical resistance-turned-support level and Fibonacci confluence levels where we could see more upside to the resistance zone at 0.6820. Prices are holding above the Ichimoku cloud as well, supporting the bullish bias.

Coloured candles represent our projection

Source: TradingView. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AUDUSD/LRCMQGeJ-AUDUSD-M30-Bullish-outlook-seen-further-upside-above-0-6740/

GBPUSD M30: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 1.1510

On the M30 time frame, a pullback to the support zone at 1.1510, in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level could see a bounce to the resistance zone at 1.1600. Failure to hold above the support zone at 1.1510 could see prices push lower to test the support zone at 1.1460. Stochastic is approaching support at 4.04 as well where we could see further upside in line with prices.

Coloured candles represent our projection

Source: TradingView. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GBPUSD/VNIZMWel-GBPUSD-M30-Bullish-outlook-seen-further-upside-above-1-1510/


USDCHF H4: Bearish outlook seen, further downside below 0.9710

On the H4 time frame, prices are facing bearish pressure from its resistance zone at 0.9710, in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci level where we could see further downside to the support zone at 0.9500 which coincides with the Fibonacci confluence levels. Prices are holding below Ichimoku cloud as well supporting the bearish bias.

Coloured candles represent our projection
Source: TradingView. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDCHF/Dq9AQH6m-USDCHF-H4-Bearish-outlook-seen-further-downside-below-0-9710/

Past performance is no indication of future performance. This report is provided by Zeta Labs, a specialized Forex Fintech Consultant and Technical Advisor who provides white-label solutions for FX Market Analysis, trading insights and education webinars. The team has a wealth of industry experience, with our analyst being part of the team recognised by The Technical Analyst Awards as Finalist for the Best FX Research for 4 consecutive years (2019, 2020, 2021, 2022). 

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