Xu Xiyang Market Commentary 28 March 2022

The US dollar rose again on Friday, non-US stocks fell, and commodity currencies remained relatively strong. Oil prices remain high and volatile, and the European Union still has not imposed an embargo on Russian energy. Due to differences among member states, the possibility of crude oil market volatility is still high. This week, the market will welcome US ADP and non-farm payrolls data for March, US job vacancy indicators for February, China’s official manufacturing PMI for March, OPEC+ meeting, speeches by Federal Reserve officials and Bank of England Governor Bailey, which can be focused on.

The US dollar closed positive last week, supported by the 5-week moving average, and the band continued its long trend. The Nikkei stood firm at the 98 mark and rose above the 5-day moving average, challenging the 99 mark. If you stand above the mark, you can continue to look up to the previous high.

The golden period closed positive and returned to the vicinity of the 5-week moving average, maintaining a volatile upward pattern. The Doji closed on Friday and turned its head down again today, dropping below the 5-day moving average. The 4-hour upward trend may be further undermined. Below, first, pay attention to the first-line support of 1940. If it breaks, it can be shorted to 1920-25.

Crude oil rose again last week, still supported by the 5-week moving average, and the band is still mainly bearish. The daily line hovers near the 5-day moving average, the bulls’ momentum slows down, and the short-term oscillates. Those who are stable can wait and see for the time being. Below, first, pay attention to the 109-110 support.

Europe and the United States fell gloomily last week, under pressure from the 5-week moving average, and the dead ends of the 5-week and 10-week moving average widened. The possibility of the further downward movement is not ruled out. It surged and fell back on Friday, and today it fell below the recent low and returned to the short-selling trend. Short orders can continue to be held. Below, pay attention to 1.09 and the previous low.

The weekly line of the pound and the United States closed the cross-positive line, but the strength of the rebound was still limited, and the trend of the band was short-sighted. Last week, it fell for many consecutive days, breaking the 10-day moving average, and the short-term moving average gold fork narrowed. The market is expected to decline further in the future. If it falls below 1.31, it can be seen as far as 1.3070.

Australia and the United States have rebounded for two consecutive weeks and are expected to continue to challenge the 0.7550 platform pressure. The daily line broke high along the 5-day moving average, the trend was extremely strong, and the strength of the bulls showed no obvious signs of exhaustion. Long orders can continue to be held.

The US and Japan closed the big Changyang again last week, stood on the upper Bollinger bands, and opened up the upward space of the band. Continue to look for more. The daily line has broken the key pressure of 122.4, and the RSI has reached the overbought zone. Multiple orders can continue to be held. The market is expected to challenge the first line of 123 and 123.6 in the future.

Silver closed positive last week, but its upward momentum is still limited, and the band is still in a volatile pattern. The daily line resumed its downward trend and dropped below the short-term moving average. The moving average began to level off. The short-term direction is also unclear. You can wait and see for the time being.

The A50 cycle line closed in the negative and dropped to the lower Bollinger band, but the band is still mainly bearish. The daily average fell below the 10-day moving average again, and the short-term moving average golden fork narrowed. The short-term average is expected to fall further. Below, we will first pay attention to the support of the 13,000 mark.

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